Energy News: Natural Gas Resumes Rally with Cold Weather Impacting Most of America

Energy News Update: January 13th, 2025 Natural Gas Resumes Rally with Cold Weather Impacting Most of America Natural Gas is the

Energy News Update: January 13th, 2025

Natural Gas Resumes Rally with Cold Weather Impacting Most of America

  • Natural Gas is the largest power source for electricity generation; therefore, its pricing is highly correlated, which is why we focus on Natural Gas in our reports.

In our Jan 6th Winter Update, we reviewed where Natural Gas rates were in 2024 and discussed where rates would likely go in 2025 and beyond. We warned In the near term, a Polar Vortex could bring an extended period of frigid weather into the eastern United States, and the latest pullback may be timely for those with contracts expiring to reserve energy to be available when their present agreement expired:

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Over the next week, cold weather is expected to impact most of America

Therefore, the latest pullback was timely for those with contracts expiring to reserve energy prior to cold weather, triggering higher prices:

But it is important to remember that if you have contracts expiring within the next 18 months and have not reserved energy to be available when your present agreements expire, it is not to late to reserve energy.

As we explained in our Jan 6th Winter Update demand is expected to outpace supplies for an extended period, which is supported by the observation that since 2000 when prices were as low as they were in 2024, the average price was always higher long-term:

Last year we finished the winter heating season with supplies nearly 700 Bcf above the 5-year moving average, which is why prices declined to their lowest level since 2000.

But this year by the end of January supplies are expected to be 100 Bch below the 5-year moving average, and the supply deficit will likely grow due to surging domestic electricity demand to accommodate the explosion of data centers, electric vehicles needing to be connected to the grid, and exports expected to rise for the foreseeable future.

The result will be high volatility, and the risk of higher prices will continue to increase, which is why we recommend anyone with agreements expiring within the next 18 months to take advantage of short-term declines to reserve Natural Gas and Electricity to be available when their present agreements expire.

Not every client’s risk tolerance and hedging strategy are the same, the goal of our reports is to reveal your risk/reward opportunities. We invite you to call one of our energy analysts to help plan a hedging strategy appropriate for your situation.

Ray Franklin
Energy Professionals
Senior Commodity Analyst

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