The Calm Just Before the Storm
Bad news first…this post is a bit long but if you can hang with me over the next couple minutes
Bad news first…this post is a bit long but if you can hang with me over the next couple minutes
Bad news first…this post is a bit long but if you can hang with me over the next couple minutes you will know more about the future of Electricity and Natural Gas than any of the people calling you everyday trying to quote you a rate.
Now for the good news…by the end of this message I guarantee you will know exactly what the future has in store for the cost of Electricity and Natural Gas for your business.
Right now as you read this, Natural Gas (the main energy source used for generating electricity) is as low as it’s been at any time over the last 20 years. This normally creates a tremendous opportunity for customers to lower their rates and in some territories this is still the case. That being said, there are quite a few customers looking for their next energy supply agreement and the pricing they are getting back is substantially higher than where their current rate is.
How can that be…with the energy markets as low as they are? Well, please keep reading and it will soon make sense!
The second factor balancing the cost of Electricity and Natural Gas are the regulatory factors that are passed into law. Right now as you read this we have seen a major increase in just one of the regulatory charges called Capacity (a charge we all pay to ensure against rolling blackouts).
The groundwork was laid a few years ago. The first domino to fall was in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and Maryland was due to new EPA regulations (Clean Power Plan) forcing many generation plants to close rather than meeting the new clean air standards.
Pennsylvania was one of the states hit the hardest by these new regulations. FirstEnergy announced in 2013 it would be closing the Hatfield’s Ferry and Mitchell power plants near Pittsburgh.
With the FirstEnergy power plants no longer part of the generation equation, Pennsylvania is now scrambling to adjust to the regulatory mandates. This is driving prices up all across the PJM grid.
With more power plants on the runway to close in 2016 and beyond, it is highly likely we will see more regulatory increases across all deregulated states.
In the above chart, you can see that over the last 20 years, Natural Gas has been below $2.00 seven times. Each time this occurred we experienced an explosive rally as shown by the green lines.
When Natural Gas has reached these lows, anytime over the past 20 years…electricity prices were always higher over the next 12, 24 and 36 months. ALWAYS!
Let me say that again: When Natural Gas has reached these lows, anytime over the past 20 years…electricity prices were always higher over the next 12, 24 and 36 months.
As you can see, we have two balancing factors creating a “CALM” in the market and no real urgency to make a move to secure your next agreement.
We have the lows of Natural Gas keeping the cost of generation down and the rising costs of regulatory charges keeping rates relatively stable.
Right now we have regulatory cost going up and energy markets moving down. This is creating a balancing affect in most markets. But in some territories, hit the hardest with the regulatory charges like the one I outlined for the PJM grid, you are already seeing you rates skyrocket even with the energy markets at a 20 year low. This is true for residential and commercial customers.
And with Natural Gas set to run for the next 36 months…let me ask you one question:
Which way do you thing electricity cost are going?
That’s right…they could be getting a lot more expensive!
If you have never looked at a 3rd party provider or if you already have a contract in place, with your renewal date anywhere within the next 24 months, now is a great opportunity to secure YOUR NEXT SUPPLY AGREMMENT.
Knowing this, the top energy suppliers in the industry will go out on the open market today and pre-buy your energy and hold it for you until your current contract is up. There is no need to cancel your current agreement, these suppliers are willing to hold the energy for up to 2 years allowing you to finish your current agreement and then seamlessly rolling into your new agreement. You get to use the buying power of these fortune 500 companies.
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